000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080926 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE DEC 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 08N84W TO 06N107W TO 12N115W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... A BROAD AND EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE E PACIFIC BASIN TO NEAR 18N130W...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N107W. DRY AND STABLE AIR EXISTS S OF 17N E OF 107W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS INDICATED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. W OF THE RIDGE...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE ITCZ TO THE N AND NE AROUND THE NW PORTION OF THE ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS IN PLACE. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 135W ARE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. N OF THIS RIDGE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE SW CONUS OVER ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N114W TO 26N123W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 27N129W. SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AT 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING 20 TO 30 KT S TO SW WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. THE MAIN PUSH WITH THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NW MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY REACHING FROM NEAR 26N113W TO 24N120W BY LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N110W TO 23N135W WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DISSIPATION OF THE FRONT BY THURSDAY. NW SWELL OF 9 TO 13 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR N WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 43N152W TO 30N145W TO 20N150W...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED EAST OF THE AXIS REMAINING IMMEDIATELY W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN TRACKING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS WATERS AND EXTEND FROM NEAR 30N134W TO 24N140W BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 20 TO 25 KT S TO SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ONLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS...WITH A FAIRLY SMALL AREA OF SW WINDS E OF THE FRONT TO 20 KT. THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING N OF 30N. A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS REACHING 20 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK... REACHING TO THE EQUATOR AND BEYOND. S OF 20N...A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...POSITIONED NEAR 13N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW IN THE W QUADRANT...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. TO THE WEST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 12N126W. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LEADING TO NE-E WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DOWNSTREAM TO 90W THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVIDENCE OF THESE WINDS WERE CAPTURED IN AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 08/0300 UTC. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. $$ HUFFMAN