000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON DEC 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 06N105W TO 10N110W TO 10N125W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 04N TO 05N E OF 80W. ...DISCUSSION... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC BASIN TO NEAR 14N134W...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N99W. DRY AND STABLE AIR EXISTS ON THE E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE (E OF 99W) WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. W OF THE RIDGE... MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE N AND NE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS IN PLACE...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. N AND W OF THIS RIDGE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FROM NW MEXICO TO 23N136W THEN SHARPLY CURVING DOWN TO 06N148W. A STRONG 90 TO 120 KT JET CORE IS IN PLACE ALONG E PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N97W TO 22N130W. NW OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N137W TO 41N140W. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE STRADDLING THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31/32N. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS BEING REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 30N122W TO 25N130W. SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AT 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 0630 UTC ASCAT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS IN THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N115W TO 27N118W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES WELL E OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 23N117W TO 26N144W WILL PREVENT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE FRONT. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR N WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N143W TO 36N140W TO 24N154W...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OUT AHEAD OF IT...JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA TO NEAR 30N139W TO 28N140W LATE TONIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO THE E ONLY CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING N OF 32N. A LARGE AREA AND HIGH MAGNITUDE OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SEAS REACHING 20 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION TUE THROUGH WED. THIS SWELL WILL THEN PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...REACHING TO THE EQUATOR AND BEYOND. S OF 20N...A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...POSITIONED NEAR 11N114W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N QUADRANT...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LOW CENTER. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. TO THE W...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES...EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 06N131W. ANY CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH JUST W OF 140W. IN ADDITION...MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT S OF 14N FROM 97W TO 122W...AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 0740 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO BELOW 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LEADING TO NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO 90W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. $$ LL