000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071522 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON DEC 07 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N78W TO 07N88W TO 04N100W TO 10N111W TO 10N117W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE E PACIFIC BASIN TO NEAR 14N134W...ANCHORED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N99W. DRY AND STABLE AIR EXISTS ON THE E SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE (E OF 99W) WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. W OF THE RIDGE... MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE ITCZ TO THE N AND NE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE...WITH A BROAD AREA OF MID AND HIGH LAYERED CLOUDS IN PLACE...HOWEVER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT THE SURFACE. N AND W OF THIS RIDGE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED FROM NW MEXICO TO 23N136W THEN SHARPLY CURVING DOWN TO 06N148W. A STRONG 90 TO 120 KT JET CORE IS IN PLACE ALONG E PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N107W TO 25N119W. NW OF THIS TROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N137W TO 41N140W. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS RIDING DOWN THE FRONT SIDE OF THE RIDGE STRADDLING THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31/32N. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS BEING REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM 30N127W TO 26N133W. SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE NW AT 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND IT AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 0630 UTC ASCAT. THIS FRONT IS ALSO PRODUCING 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS IN THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE E DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...REACHING FROM NEAR 31N115W TO 27N118W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES WELL E OF THE AREA BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 23N117W TO 26N144W WILL PREVENT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK OF THE FRONT. NW SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR N WATERS BEHIND THIS FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 40N143W TO 36N140W TO 24N154W...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITIONED OUT AHEAD OF IT...JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA TO NEAR 30N139W TO 28N140W BY EARLY TUE MORNING WITH 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO THE E ONLY CLIPPING OUR FAR NORTHERN WATERS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING N OF 32N. A LARGE AREA AND HIGH MAGNITUDE OF NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAX SEAS REACHING 20 FT IN THE FAR NW PORTION TUE THROUGH WED. THIS SWELL WILL THEN PROPAGATE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...REACHING TO THE EQUATOR AND BEYOND. S OF 20N...A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...POSITIONED NEAR 11N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW IN THE N QUADRANT...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS LOW IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. TO THE W...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES... EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 06N131W. ANY CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH JUST W OF 140W. IN ADDITION...MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 9 FT E OF A LINE FROM 16N110W TO 00N126W...W OF 98W...AS CAPTURED BY AN EARLIER 0740 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO BELOW 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS OVER NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA LEADING TO NE-E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO 90W THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LANDMASS. $$ LEWITSKY