000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060317
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 09N108W TO 06.5N118W TO 9N127W TO 
07.5N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM N OF AXIS E OF 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 83W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION  WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS AND 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
110W AND 127W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ONLY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE N PART OF THE 
AREA. AS A RESULT...WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE 
RIDGE ARE BELOW 20 KT. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SMALL POCKETS OF 20 
KT WINDS NEAR A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR 09N130W WHICH 
WILL PRODUCE A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE VEERED TO THE SW AND WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE TONIGHT N OF 29N IN ADVANCE OF A 
COLD FRONT DIVING DOWN THROUGH THE U.S. GREAT BASIN.

ALTHOUGH NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 
08N AND W OF 112W...THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE DIMINISHED TRADEWINDS. A COLD FRONT HAS 
MOVED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE FAR N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
NW SWELL GENERATED FROM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY 
SPREAD S AND E OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG N WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE 
BEING FUNNELED ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING 
THERE. THE COLD FRONT THAT GENERATED THE STRONG N WINDS HAS 
RAPIDLY SHIFTED EASTWARD AS WELL AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE 
FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF 
COAST STATES...AND WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE STARTED TO 
VEER...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 42055 WHICH IS NOW INDICATING NE TO 
E WINDS. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WITH WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY 06Z. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO 
90W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST...20 
TO 25 KT...DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE 
FLOW. 

$$

AL