000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050306
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 05.5N80W TO 06N88W TO 05N97W TO 
08N106W TO 7.5N111W TO 09N125W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W TO 132W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE N PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE N PORTION OF 
THE AREA. WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN...THE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE N PORTION OF THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR 
124W...WILL SHIFT OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BY SAT NIGHT AS 
ANOTHER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST E OF HAWAII...MOVES INTO THE W 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE 
N PORTION OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE COVERAGE OF FRESH 
TRADES WILL DECREASE IN EXTENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE SAT 
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE SAT NIGHT AS 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
VEERS WINDS TO THE SE TO E OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

EASTERLY TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 89W DURING 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING 
HOURS WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$

AL