000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N84W TO 06N94W TO 08N99W TO 
07N107W TO 09N116W TO 06N127W TO 07N132W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 115 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 140 
NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 116W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED  
STRONG CONVENTION WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 116W 
AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
AND 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1019 MB REMAINS NEAR 29N131W. THOUGH THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE HAS WEAKENED...FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE...MAINLY 
FROM 09N TO 22N W OF 110W. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY 
W OF THE AREA ALONG 145W IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE N 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...N OF 21N...THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. 
THIS WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE..AND DECREASE 
THE COVERAGE OF FRESH TRADES. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
110W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF TRADES...AND WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL S OF ABOUT 10N. 

FURTHER EAST...EARLY MORNING WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT WERE AGAIN 
EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THOUGH THE WINDS DECREASE 
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST EACH MORNING THROUGH FRI.

NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA N OF 27N LATE THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT 
BASIN.

$$
AL