000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 08N100W TO 06N105W TO 09N115W 
TO 06N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVENTION EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 
135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 135W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST IN 
ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF 
HAWAII. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 28N128W HAS WEAKENED 
ACCORDINGLY...ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM THE LAST 
SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH 
PRES...MAINLY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 115W. THE SHORT WAVE IS 
COMING INTO PHASE WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER TROUGH EAST OF HAWAII 
ALONG 147W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCE A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ AS IT LIFTS TO THE NE. 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SURFACE LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT 
ALONG ROUGHLY 140W NEAR 15N...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE AREA...AND ARE IN BETTER 
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS FEATURE REMAINING FAIRLY WEAK AS THE 
UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT THROUGH THU.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
115W...MIXING WITH NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF TRADES...AND WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL S OF ABOUT 10N. 

FURTHER EAST...EARLY MORNING WINDS TO AT LEAST 20 KT AGAIN WERE 
EVIDENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST EACH 
MORNING THROUGH FRI.

EXPECT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO PICK UP BY 
LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN