000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 30 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 05N77W TO 08N106W TO 07N109W TO 11N126W TO 09N132W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 103W TO 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 136W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SPANS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC...WITH STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES UNDERCUTTING THIS PATTERN FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 120W. A VIGOROUS AND DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N113W WAS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE S-SE INTO NW MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD W TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST U.S. STATES TO S OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO NEAR 21N120W...PUMPING MOIST AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS UP FROM THE TROPICS TO THE NE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE SE TIP OF CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 09N112W...WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE NW...A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ALL THE WAY S TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 30N140W...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE FROM ALONG THE W U.S. COAST S TO THE ITCZ. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN W AND N OF OUR AREA AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO 140W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1010 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 07N107W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HOSTILE SW SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AS A WEAK TROUGH BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE... A 1026 MB AREA OF HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 38N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N135W THEN TO 21N124W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE S OF 26 N TO THE ITCZ...W OF 112W WITH 20 TO 25 KT NE TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THAT AREA AS CAPTURED BY AN 1820 UTC ASCAT PASS. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN SIZE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W-NW. ALSO SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM PBKH AND 3FOC5 REPORTED 20 TO 25 KT NW WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GETTING FUNNELED INTO THE WATERS OF THE SEBASTIAN VIZCAINO BAY NEAR THE N/S BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SEAS UP TO 15 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE AND S THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE EQUATOR AND BEYOND...AS CAPTURED BY A 2000 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK TONIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE ON MON. ...GAP WINDS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL EVENTUALLY VEER TO THE S AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS DOWN OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO 89W...AND WINDS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH MON. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY