000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN NOV 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 06N77W TO 07N104W TO 07N108W TO 11N125W TO 09N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 136W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 136W. ...DISCUSSION... AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SPANS THE HIGHER LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL AND NE PACIFIC...WITH STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES UNDERCUTTING THIS PATTERN FROM 16N TO 26N W OF 120W. A VIGOROUS AND DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N114W WAS VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE S-SE INTO NW MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TOWARD W TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST U.S. STATES TO S OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO NEAR 21N122W...PUMPING MOIST AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS UP FROM THE TROPICS TO THE NE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N113W...WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE NW...A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA ALL THE WAY S TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES 30N140W...WITH THE MAJORITY OF ANY ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAINING N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE IN PLACE FROM ALONG THE W U.S. COAST S TO THE ITCZ. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 07N106W HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT HAS ENCOUNTERED HOSTILE SW SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AS A WEAK TROUGH BEFORE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A 1032 MB AREA OF HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 38N133W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 28N135W THEN TO 21N124W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE S OF 26 N TO THE ITCZ...W OF 112W WITH 20 TO 30 KT NE TRADES CONTINUING ACROSS THAT AREA. THIS AREA OF STRONG TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN SIZE AND INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LONGWAVE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W-NW. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL YIELDING SEAS UP TO 16 FT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE AND S THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS REACHING ALL THE WAY TO THE EQUATOR AND BEYOND. SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK TONIGHT THEN WILL SUBSIDE ON MON. ...GAP WINDS... NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...THEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO 89W...AND WINDS THERE WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE UP AND DOWN THROUGH MON. NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEHIND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY