000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290949
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 29 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 06N82W TO 07N90W TO 07N110W TO 10N120W TO 
10N135W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 100W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 129W-133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONG AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM SE CONUS THROUGH 
SRN MEXICO TO 10N110W BRINGS VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR ALOFT DEEP 
INTO ITCZ.  LOW PRES 1008 MB AT 06N103W BOUND TO MEET HOSTILE SW 
WINDS ALOFT AND DRY SWATH WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY WEAKEN IT 
SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN NEXT 24-48 HRS.  MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD 
RIDGE WELL ANCHORED AT 10N123W KEEPS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS E 
PAC S OF 25N W OF 115W AND FEEDS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO DEVELOPING 
SURFACE LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 12N125W.  CREST OF RIDGE FLATTENS 
DUE TO DEEP LAYER TROUGH JUST ALONG NRN BORDER OF E PAC PUSHING 
ZONAL WIND WITH JET CORE OF 135 KT.  MOST ACTION REMAINS N OF 
32N ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA 
COAST SPREAD N OF 26N W OF 116W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE HIGH PRES OF 1031 MB AT 37N134W HAS RIDGE AXIS EXTEND TO 
17N115W.  PRESENT PRES GRADIENT CAUSING STRONG TRADES N OF 12N W 
OF 120W EXPECTED TO RELAX AS HIGH PRES MOVES N DIMINISHING 
STRENGTH OF WINDS AND THEIR COVERAGE AREA.  LARGE LONG PERIOD 
SWELL UP TO 17 FT PROPAGATE THROUGH NRN WATERS REACHING EQUATOR 
AND BEYOND.  SEAS HEIGHTS FORECAST TO PEAK DURING NEXT 24 HRS 
THEN SUBSIDE MON. 

...GAP WINDS...
E TRADES IN W CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WINDS THROUGH GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO 90W THROUGH SUN AND DIMINISH 
BY MON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CHANNELS REMNANTS NW WINDS FROM SURFACE RIDGE 
INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. 

$$
WALLY BARNES