000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 08N78W TO 06N92W TO 05N95W TO 07N118W TO 
07N122W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE AXIS AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WASHINGTON STATE COAST NEAR 47N124W 
TO 34N140W TO 19N164W JUST SW OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS 
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD PUSHING A SURFACE COLD 
FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 32N132W TO 29N140W FARTHER INTO THE 
NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH 
PRES OF 1034 MB NEAR 38N145W AT 0000 UTC WILL BUILD IN BEHIND 
THE FRONT OVER THE N WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A 
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OF THE ITCZ 
WILL RESULT IN NE TRADES IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE. A 2200 UTC 
JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT N OF 30N 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS NEXT SET OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL 
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR AREA W OF 110W DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA SW TO
NEAR 11N120W WITH VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE NW OF THE 
TROUGH. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT EXISTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE 
RESULTING IN MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH NO 
NOTICEABLE IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE 
SURFACE. 

1606 UTC AND 1748 UTC ASCAT PASSES INDICATED TWO WEAK AREAS OF 
LOW PRES...ONE NEAR 05N95.5W AND THE OTHER NEAR 08N120W 
RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS 
SPARSE DUE TO STRONG S-SW SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT. 
THE LOWS ARE BOTH FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W AT 10 KT 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES WINDS TO 20 
TO 25 KT AROUND BOTH LOWS BY 48 HOURS.

...GAP WINDS...
STORM FORCE (50 KT OR GREATER) CONDITIONS HAVE COMMENCED IN THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 0600 UTC 
SAT. GALES FORECAST TO EXIST THEREAFTER THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON... 
THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER SUNSET SAT.  

EASTERLY TRADES IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM WATERS TO NEAR 88W
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS THERE. 

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT SAN FELIPE MEXICO ON THE COAST OF THE NW 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT WITH THE PRES GRADIENT NOW EASING. WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA ARE FORECAST TO BECOME AND REMAIN LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$

LEWITSKY