000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 
06N82W TO 07N101W TO 05N110W TO 08N118W TO 06N123W TO 08N132W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
E OF 88W.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 104W TO 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM 10N115W TO 28N133W IS 
MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN N OF THE ITCZ AND W 
OF 120W...WHILE ADVECTING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL N OF 
ITCZ EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. REORGANIZING S/W TROUGH FROM 
W TEXAS TO 21N106W HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH L/W TROUGH ACROSS 
CENTRAL U.S. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN BROAD MID-UPPER 
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE OF TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF NE PORTIONS OF 
THE AREA. AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA WAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE W AND SW GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS NW 
CARIBBEAN. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB CENTERED AT 32N135W IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS W OF 125W N OF 10N...WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 
FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF FORECAST 
AREA THROUGH NEXT 48 HOURS THEN SHIFT E...BEFORE WEAKENING WED 
AND DIMINISHING...AND SHRINKING THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES.  THIS 
WILL ALSO BRING A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA YIELDING A FRESH NORTH BREEZE TO THE BASIN N OF 28N 
BEGINNING EARLY TUE. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO 
SPREADING S AND SE ACROSS MOST E PAC W OF 115W. 

FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 36 HOURS AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA 
WEAKENS.  

$$