000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 08N115W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 
125 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W AND 130W...ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW 
LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ W OF 120W THE PAST COUPLE 
OF DAYS HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE SE TRADES HAVE 
DECREASED IN MAGNITUDE...AND CONVERGENCE HAS DECREASED. THOUGH 
THERE STILL REMAINS ISOLATED TO MODERATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 127 
AND 130W DUE TO A WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 1026 MB CENTERED NEAR 33.5N136W AS 
DEPICTED IN THE 0400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS HAS MAINTAINED 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA N OF 11N. THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN N 
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A SHIFT E 
OF ITS CURRENT POSITION...BEFORE STARTING TO WEAKEN ON WED. THIS 
WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE 
AREA SHRINKING SLIGHTLY IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS E OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29N WILL 
INCREASE. THE TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY INCLUDE A LARGE AREA OF 
20-25 KT NE-E WINDS S OF 25N AND W OF 125W...WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 
FT IN MIXED NE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. LARGE NWLY 
SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WATERS AND WILL FADE MODESTLY 
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF NW SWELL 
ARRIVES. E OF 115W...SEAS REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE ACROSS 
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...DOMINATED BY A MERGING MIX OF 
NW...SW...AND S SWELL. 

NORTHERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD 
DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE WINDS HAVE VEERED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT. HOWEVER...A SMALL PLUME OF NEAR 20 KT N WINDS IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS. FRESH NE TRADES THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AND DOWNSTREAM SOME 300 MILES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 
TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

$$

AL