000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 2100 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1800 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 08N77W TO 06N84W TO 07N107W TO 05N118W TO 09N129W TO 
05N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 
NM OF AXIS E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 
75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 127W TO 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE CENTERED AT 08N126W MAINTAINS 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST E PAC S OF 22N W OF 100W ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ 
W OF 125W.  

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN TEXAS TO 28N117W KEEPS SUBSIDENCE 
AND STABLE AIR N OF 22N...WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 
NICARAGUA TO 00N100W DOES LIKEWISE S OF 13N FROM 90W-100W.  

HIGH PRES 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N135W MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT 
ACROSS MUCH OF AREA N OF ITCZ AND W OF 115W...WITH LOW PRES OVER 
SRN CALIFORNIA HELPING TO INCREASE N-NW WINDS ALONG COASTAL 
WATERS BUT SPREADING S OFFSHORE OF BAJA PENINSULA W COAST TOO. 
TRADE WINDS INCLUDE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO FRESH BREEZE W OF 
120W WHICH LASTS THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH PRES TO 
MOVE E AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS N OF 28-29N IN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 36 HRS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 
HIGH PRES BEHIND IT MOVE FURTHER E...VEERING WINDS SE...BUT 
ALLOWS SMALL PLUME OF NEAR 20 KT N WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH 36 
HOURS.  FRESH BREEZE TO DIMINISH EARLY MON BEFORE INCREASING 
AGAIN WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  FRESH BREEZE REMAINS ACROSS 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA GIVES NO SIGNS OF 
MOVING OR WEAKENING.   

$$