000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 05N86W TO 07N107W TO 05N116W TO 08N126W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION E OF 90W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 94W TO 
97W.  SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 125W TO 135W.


...DISCUSSION...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE CENTERED AT 08N107W MAINTAINS 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST E PAC S OF 22N W OF 100W ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE NE FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG ITCZ 
W OF 125W.  

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WRN TEXAS TO 23N115W KEEPS DRY AIR MASS 
N OF 22N AND SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NICARAGUA TO 00N100W
DOES LIKEWISE S OF 13N FROM 90W-100W.  

HIGH PRES 1026MB CENTERED NEAR 32N138W MAINTAINS TIGHT GRADIENT 
WITH LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA INCREASING N-NW WINDS ALONG 
COASTAL WATERS BUT SPREADING S ALONG BAJA PENINSULA COAST TOO. 
TRADE WINDS INCLUDE LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO MODERATE BREEZE W OF 
122W WHICH LAST THROUGH ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH PRES MOVE 
E AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS N OF 30N IN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HRS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISH AS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED 
HIGH PRES BEHIND IT MOVE FURTHER E VEERING WINDS SE.  FRESH 
BREEZE DIMINISH EARLY MON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WELL BEYOND 
FORECAST PERIOD.  FRESH BREEZE REMAIN ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA GIVES NO SIGNS OF MOVING OR WEAKENING.   

$$
WALLY BARNES