000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0815 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N80W TO 07N104W TO 07N103W TO 
07N109W TO 08N114W TO 07N116W TO 09N126W TO 6.5N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 
122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 140 NM S OF 
AXIS ALONG 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE 1026MB CENTERED NEAR 33N141W AS DEPICTED IN 0430 
UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO DEPICTED A LARGE 
AREA OF TRADEWINDS GREATER THAN 20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND BE CENTERED N OF 
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON NIGHT. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE W HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW TO N WINDS HAVE FUNNELED FROM THE GULF OF 
MEXICO THROUGH THE PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE ASCAT 
DEPICTED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE 
TODAY AS WINDS OVER THE GULF START TO VEER AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT 
BY MONDAY. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA AND FONSECA HAVE 
DECREASED WHILE MODERATE GAP WINDS OVER PAPAGAYO CONTINUE. THESE 
WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE AID OF DRAINAGE FLOW. 

THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LIE IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 123W. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST SURFACE 
CONFLUENCE BETWEEN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES AND MODERATE TO 
FRESH SE TRADES...AND A RIDGE OF 1 TO 2 C ANOMALOUS SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. 

$$
AL