000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220339 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN NOV 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 06N79W TO 06N96W TO 07N103W TO 06N110W TO 09N124W TO 08N135W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS W OF 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 100W AND 110W... AND ALONG 81W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG 10N BETWEEN 150W AND 110W...AND CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A BLOCKING EFFECT ACROSS THE EPAC WHILE CONTINUING TO VENTILATE MODERATE TO STRONG CNVTN ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 120...WHICH IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN FRINGES OF A TONGUE OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM SURFACE AND SUB SURFACE WATERS. BROAD ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDS N TO 25/26N...WHERE A NARROW MID-UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WWD IN A TUTT LIKE FASHION TO AN UPPER LOW N OF HAWAII ALONG 154W. THESE WLY'S N OF THE RIDGE ARE TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHEARED OFF FROM ITCZ CNVTN S THROUGH SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NE THEN E...ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO...EFFECTING THE FAMED PINEAPPLE EXPRESS. A SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE E ACROSS THE EPAC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BEGIN TO ERODE PORTIONS OF THIS BLOCKING TROPICAL RIDGE BY MID WEEK. IN FACT THIS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG DEEP INTO THE TROPICAL EPAC AND MOVE E ACROSS THE BAJA AND INTO MEXICO THU-FRI AND SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN. E OF THIS RIDGE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A MID LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA...SW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO AN ELONGATED MID-UPPER LOW TERMINATING NEAR 03N110W. UPPER CONVERGENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THIS REGION E OF 118W AND IS LEADING TO DRY AND VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE UPPER LOWS. AT THE SURFACE... A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 33N141W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO OFFSHORE OF BAJA...BEHIND A NOW DIFFUSE FRONT...CONTINUING SE TO 14N105W...AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES DUE S OF THE RIDGE...W OF 120W. LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE...COVERING MOST OF EPAC...WITH ANOTHER PULSE NOW CROSSING 20N. W OF 120W...SEAS REMAIN CONFUSED AT 10-13 FT IN A BROAD MIX OF NELY WIND SWELL...N TO NW SWELL...AND VERY LONG PERIOD SRN HEMI SWELL FROM THE SW. SIMILAR MIXED AND MERGING LONG PERIOD SWELL DOMINATED THE EQUATORIAL BELT SOUTH AND EWD. MODERATE GAP WINDS CONTINUE TO FLOW THROUGH GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS EVENING AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND EXPAND SW SUNDAY. NLY FLOW FROM GULF OF MEXICO HAS INITIATED ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY...PRESENTLY 20-25 KT...THAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH MON. $$ STRIPLING