000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N88W TO 07N106W TO 08N125W TO 
07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM 
S OF AXIS W OF 124W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 102W AND 109W AND E OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
VERY BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED AT 09N118W COVERS THE 
ENTIRETY OF THE BASIN S OF 24N...WHILE A TUTT AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA W ALONG 24/25N TO JUST N OF THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS. BROAD SCALE  UPPER CONVERGENCE E OF 118W IS LEADING TO 
VERY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF E PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH FURTHER S AS THE PREVAILING SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE BLOCKS AND PREVENTS IT.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB CENTERED AT 34N143W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING E AND  
SE TO 14N98W...AND IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES DUE S 
OF THE RIDGE...W OF 120W.  LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUE 
TO SPREAD SE COVERING MOST OF E PAC EXCEPT ALONG TRADE BELT AND 
S OF 10N WHERE CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL INVADE N OF THE EQUATOR.

GAP WINDS CONTINUE THEIR MODERATE BREEZE THROUGH GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEXT 24 HOURS. NLY FLOW FROM GULF OF 
MEXICO HAS INITIATED ANOTHER PULSE OF GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...PRESENTLY 20-25 KT...THAT IS EXPECTED TO LAST 
NEXT 24 HOURS THE QUICKLY DIMINISH MON.   

$$