000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N83W 5N95W 7N105W 6N115W 8N130W 7N140W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. DOWNSTREAM MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 25N122W. A 90-105 KT JET STREAM IS S 
OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N140W TO 25N118W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 
115 KT THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS DECREASE 
TO 95-100 KT THEN INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS 
N OF THE JET. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM S 
OF THE JET AXIS FROM 140W-120W. A BROAD FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS S OF THE JET BETWEEN 115W-130W...WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 112N121W. TO THE E AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 12N109W WITH A TROUGH FROM 
THE CIRCULATION S TO 4N114W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATES
THIS CIRCULATION WITH ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N94W.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 15N E OF 115W HAS SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA.

STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS 
MOVED E AND THE PRES GRADIENT HAS WEANED SOME ACROSS SOUTHERN 
MEXICO AND THE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 20-30 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 
115W. THE HIGH IS PRODUCING STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FOR WINDS TO 
REACH 20 TO 25 KT FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. LARGE NW SWELLS ARE 
N OF 25N W OF 125W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
COVER THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 118W-135W.

A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. ONE 
FROM 12N104W TO 4N104W. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH,
ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N131W TO 4N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

$$
DGS