000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 17 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 05N90W TO 07N98W TO 05N104W TO 09N125W TO 
07N132W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 91W-97W AND FROM 113W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N101W TO 25N112W TO 24N120W. 
JET CORE SE OF AXIS 95 KT INHIBITING CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF 
AREA N OF 20N FROM 110W-130W.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E  
ACROSS MEXICO AS UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKES OVER CONTROL OF AREA WITH 
ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. 

QUICKLY WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER 1019 MB AT 30N130W HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 20N110W.  PRES GRADIENT BEGINNING TO RELAX AS RIDGE 
BREAKS DOWN WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS DIMINISHING TRADES AND COVERAGE 
AREA. 

COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS FORCES RIDGE E AND BRINGS 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF 26N W OF 120W.  SEAS EXPECTED TO 
REACH 14 FT IN NW SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS DIMINISHING AS FAST AS THEY INCREASED 
24 HRS AGO AND EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS.

N TO NE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE MORNING.  
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NE BREEZE EXPECTED IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
EARLY WED.

$$
WALLY BARNES