000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 16 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 05N87W TO 08N97W TO 05N107W TO 10N122W TO 
07N130W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 115W-118W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N101W TO 25N115W TO 19N125W. 
JET CORE SE OF AXIS IN EXCESS OF 70 KT INHIBITING CONVECTION 
OVER MUCH OF AREA N OF 20N W OF 110W.  TROUGH EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE E ACROSS MEXICO AS UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKES OVER CONTROL OF 
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR MASS. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1024 MB AT 31N130W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N110W. 
PRES GRADIENT BEGINNING TO RELAX AS RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES E 
DIMINISHING TRADES AND COVERAGE AREA. 

COLD FRONT EXPECTED OVER NW WATERS FORCES RIDGE E AND BRINGS 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE N OF 26N W OF 120W.  SEAS EXPECTED TO 
REACH 14 FT IN NW SWELL.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS DIMINISHING AS FAST AS THEY INCREASED 
24 HRS AGO AND EXPECTED TO BECOME BELOW 20 KT WITHIN 24 HRS.

N TO NE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 
WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE 
MORNING.  IN ADDITION...NE TO E WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE 
ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY WED MORNING.

$$
WALLY BARNES