000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140337
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 14 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N83W TO 06N96W TO 11N111W TO 06N125W TO 10N136W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS FROM 99W TO 
120W AND W OF 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N130W TO 09N140W TIGHTENS PRES 
GRADIENT WITH HEALTHY 1029 MB HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA 
INCREASING TRADES TO STRONG BREEZE AND EXPANDING COVERAGE N OF 
10N W OF 120W.  SURFACE MOISTURE FEED TO AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF 102W.  
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N114W TO 10N116W MOVING INTO 
ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF 
INTENSIFICATION.  UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT 32N124W TO 
26N140W ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NE INTO NW MEXICO AND MID 
WEST CONUS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR NEXT COLD 
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING INTO AREA JUST N OF BASIN BRINGS STRONG N 
WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST SEEPING INTO E PAC AND EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND...COULD EVENTUALLY 
BECOME A NEAR GALE EVENT IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 26N. 

WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL SWELLS MOVING N BUILD SEAS S OF 12N E OF 85W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES