000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 13 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 06N94W TO 11N111W TO 06N127W TO 09N134W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E 
OF 90W...FROM 96W TO 112W AND W OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N130W TO 09N140W TIGHTENS PRES 
GRADIENT WITH HEALTHY 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER N OF AREA 
INCREASING TRADES TO STRONG BREEZE AND EXPANDING COVERAGE N TO 
30N W OF 120W.  SURFACE MOISTURE FEED TO AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ W OF 116W.  
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N113W TO 11N116W MOVING INTO 
ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRON WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF 
INTENSIFICATION.  UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AT 32N125W TO 
27N140W ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NE INTO NW MEXICO AND MID 
WEST CONUS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE PLENTY OF ENERGY FOR NEXT COLD 
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING INTO AREA JUST N OF BASIN BRINGS STRONG N 
WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST SEEPING INTO E PAC AND EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND...COULD EVENTUALLY 
BECOME A NEAR GALE EVENT IN NRN FRINGES OF GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

WINDS OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE BUT 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR NEXT 06-12 HRS...THEN BELOW 20 
KT.  CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELLS MOVING N BUILD SEAS S OF 10N E OF 
95W. 

$$
WALLY BARNES