000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
T08N83W TO 07N125W TO 06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE E OF 85W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 95W-106W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 115W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS E PAC WITH AXIS FROM GULF OF 
MEXICO NW COAST TO 15N114W TO CYCLONE 04N117W.  WELL DEFINE 
UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE AT 15N124W FORCES CONFLUENT AIR MASS 420 NM 
NW OF TROUGH AXIS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDING AIR KEEPING 
A DRY ATMOSPHERE.  DIFFLUENT FLOW S OF 10N W OF 115W ENHANCING 
PLENTY OF CONVECTION ALONG WEAK TROUGH NEAR 10N135W IN ITCZ.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER AT 21N118W WEAKENS AS COLD FRONT ALONG NRN 
EDGES BECOMES DIFFUSE...NOT WITHOUT FORCING A MODERATE TO FRESH 
BREEZE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST N OF 26N.  MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADES ARE REINFORCED BY NEW HIGH PRES BEHIND COLD FRONT 
EXPANDING AREA TO N OF 10N W OF 120W THROUGH END OF FORECAST 
PERIOD.   

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FORECAST TO 
PERSIST TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES