000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112214
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 06N81W TO 07N88W TO 05N100W TO 06N112W TO 
10N124W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS FROM 118W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER HONDURAS HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 110W S 
OF 20N KEEPING VERY DRY AIR MASS UNDER IT.  BARELY ANY MOISTURE 
NOTED EXCEPT E OF 85W ALONG COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONE AT 09N115W ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 118W AND 50 KT 
SW JET CORE ADVECTS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE TO WRN CENTRAL MEXICO.

SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 16N133W HAS UPSTREAM RIDGE SQUEEZED BY 
INCOMING TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHING 32N140W.  WEAK COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH ENTERS E PAC BASIN...REMAINS N OF 24N AND 
BECOMES DIFFUSE BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. 

AT THE SURFACE...
LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS NOW AFFECTING BASIN GET REINFORCED BY 
LARGE AND HEALTHY SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER BEHIND COLD FRONT AND 
CONTINUE IMPACTING E PAC MAINLY W OF 95W.  

HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB OVER MEXICO WEAKENS AND ALLOW WINDS 
CROSSING INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE 
FORCE WITHIN NEXT 30 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES