000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG...07N77W TO 08N85W TO 06N96W TO 11N120W TO 08N132W TO 
07N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
83W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 
NM N AXIS FROM 113W-123W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED WITH ANTICYCLONES OVER HONDURAS AND 
14N102W KEEP DRY AIR MASS OVER ENTIRE REGION S OF 18N E OF 110W.
WEAK TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N115W TO 06N120W ADVECTING MOISTURE 
FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NE TO NW MEXICO.  REMAINDER OF BASIN 
W OF TROUGH IS UNDER SHARP RIDGE ANCHORED AT 09N144W WITH 
MOISTURE FEEDING ITCZ INSTABILITY W OF 132W. 

SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING E PAC NW CORNER APPEAR 
STRONGER WITH 120 KT SW JET CORE.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS 
WEAK AND BARELY ENTERS NW CORNER OF E PAC AND IS LIFTED N OF 32N 
BY RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS E PAC MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES W 
OF 120W FROM 10N-20N THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  LARGE LONG PERIOD 
NW SWELL CONTINUE AFFECTING MOST OF E PAC W OF 100W EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION FORECAST TO PEAK 
WITHIN 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT STILL REMAIN AT GALE 
FORCE BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES