000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 10 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...06N77W TO 
06N100W TO 09N110W 09N120W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 04.5N79W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
POINT 14N116W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 06N TO 08.5N W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN AXIS FROM 
NORTHEAST MEXICO ACROSS MEXICO TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
22N120W THEN SOUTH TO THE ITCZ NEAR 127W. NORTH AND WEST OF THIS 
TROUGH AXIS TO A LINE FROM 28N105W TO 25N130W TO 202N140W THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
NORTH OF THIS DRY AREA SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH SOME 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST UPPER CLOUDS MAINLY WEST OF 130W. THROUGHOUT 
MOST OF THIS AREA NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS THE LOWER LEVELS ARE 
COVERED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A DRY MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LAYER AREA IS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NORTH OF 28N E 
OF 105W. A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED 
NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITCZ CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE FROM 22N103W TO 10N122W. WITHIN THIS PLUME ARE MULTI LEVEL 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO SOUTH OF 15N.

A SHARP MOSTLY UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG ABOUT 91W 
CONTINUING TO THE ITCZ. THE AREA OVER THE OCEAN AND MEXICO WEST 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME IS DRY 
AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. OVER NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA SOME LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED LOW 
TOPPED CONVECTION IS NOTED ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED 
TO THE OCEAN REGIONS AND ALONG COASTAL BELIZE. 
 
REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW. STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN 
AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. ELSEWHERE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ARE FORECAST 
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
LL