000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061519
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS...

LOW PRESSURE IS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 11N92W WITH AN ESTIMATED 
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE 
SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. CURRENTLY WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN ONLY BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM IN THE NORTH 
AND NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY 
AND NOT DEVELOP.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N84W TO 
09N105W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS EAST OF 79W FROM 04N TO 08N. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W TO 11N110W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO TROUGHS DOMINATE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN WITH A 
TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 120W AT 23N. 
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY WITH A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION REACHING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY AND WEST 
TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT IS ABSORBED BY THE 
WESTERLIES SUNDAY. OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME 
EMBEDDED RAIN ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING 
OVER MEXICO WEST OF 110W.

THE OTHER TROUGH IS A MOSTLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE ITCZ NEAR 95W. THE TROUGH AXIS IS RATHER 
SHARP WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITHIN 900 
NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOIST UPPER FLOW WITH MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITHIN 360 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS BEING 
SHEARED BY THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED 
IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 112W. ELSEWHERE BESIDES THE 
LOW MENTIONED ABOVE A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TODAY AND THROUGH 
SATURDAY AT LESS THAN GALE FORCE. 

$$
LL