000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N83W TO 
09N105W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 09N TO 10N FROM 104W TO 109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM OF THE POINT 10N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE POINT 08N126.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO TROUGHS DOMINATE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE ITCZ NEAR 140W. THE TROUGH IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE 
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REACHING NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
FRIDAY AND SLOWING FURTHER BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N127W TO 
24N140W. SOME BROKEN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 25N FROM 
123W TO 135W MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE OTHER TROUGH IS A MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 
FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE ITCZ NEAR 95W. THE TROUGH AXIS IS RATHER 
SHARP WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITHIN 600 
NM WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW WITH MULTI 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM EAST 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS COVERED BY BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 110W AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. 
ALSO WEAK RIDGE WEST OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI AND THROUGH 
SATURDAY AT LESS THAN GALE FORCE. 

$$
LL