000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 05 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 8N110W 10N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 97W TO 
102W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 102W TO 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT 
FROM 30N132W TO 24N140W. OVERCAST MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WITH A 
FEW SHOWERS N OF 28N WITHIN 150 NM E OF FRONT. AN 80-95 KT NLY 
JET STREAM IS ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 32134W TO 
28N134W...WITH A 95-100 KT SLY JET E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
26N130W TO 32M126W. 

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
IS CENTERED NEAR 13N112W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION W TO 9N130W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONE TO 6N102W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SE OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE S 
TEXAS MEXICO BORDER ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 10N93W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS.

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 25N125W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 118W-130W.
A COUPLE OF LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST A 1009 
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE LOW OVER THE NE QUADRANT. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A 
SECOND LOW...1009 MB IS NEAR 10N131W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR 
THE LOW CENTER. A 1009 MB LOW N OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED NEAR 
13N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 
NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 13N138W 
TO 7N138W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL THROUGH FRI. 

$$
DGS