000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041527 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W TO 9N97W TO 12N109W TO 8N117W TO 10N127W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 9N106W TO 9N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E KT IS LOCATED NEAR 14N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WELL NNE TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OTHER RIDGES EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N134W...AND SE TO NEAR 9N104W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 103W AND 127W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...SHARPENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NOTED W OF 131W WITH ITS AXIS FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE REGION FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W MOVING E 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 12N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 21N126W AND UP AND OVER THE RIDGE BEFORE IT DIVES SE TO NEAR 16N105W. THE JET THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A BASE REACHING S TO NEAR 11N98W...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 60 KT. WEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N124W TO 30N129W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE JET STREAM. LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW OVER THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N122W. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 134W AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N127W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE-E TO 20 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 12N TO 18N W OF 132W. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG 132W FROM 16N-21N. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF WEAK RIDGING TO THE N WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY S OF THE SE GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO WHERE CURRENTLY A STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 11N91W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. LOW AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FORTIFY THE LOW WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PRES GRADIENT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 210 NM NW AND 270 SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT IN 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 13N110W MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT. THIS LOW IS UNDER NW-N UPPER SHEAR CREATED BY THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N116W SO IT REMAINS A SHEARED LOW WITH LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN ITS VICINITY. ISOLATED WEAKENING CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 111W. THESE TWO LOWS ARE TIED TO AN ELONGATED LOW PRES GYRE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 87W-100W. GAP WINDS... STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT IN 60 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS... THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN 48 HOURS. THIS EVENT SHOULD LAST INTO FRI MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041527 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W TO 9N97W TO 12N109W TO 8N117W TO 10N127W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 9N106W TO 9N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-99W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E KT IS LOCATED NEAR 14N116W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WELL NNE TO ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OTHER RIDGES EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 10N134W...AND SE TO NEAR 9N104W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 103W AND 127W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE...SHARPENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS NOTED W OF 131W WITH ITS AXIS FROM 30N137W TO 26N140W. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE REGION FROM 30N137W TO 28N140W MOVING E 15 KT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 12N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 21N126W AND UP AND OVER THE RIDGE BEFORE IT DIVES SE TO NEAR 16N105W. THE JET THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH A BASE REACHING S TO NEAR 11N98W...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 60 KT. WEAL MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FROM 23N124W TO 30N129W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE JET STREAM. LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW OVER THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N122W. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES IS PRESENT N OF 18N AND E OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH...A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 134W AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N127W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE-E TO 20 KT WINDS FROM ABOUT 12N TO 18N W OF 132W. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG 132W FROM 16N-21N. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE AREA OF WEAK RIDGING TO THE N WILL RESULT IN NE WINDS TO 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY S OF THE SE GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO WHERE CURRENTLY A STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 11N91W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. LOW AND MID LEVEL VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FORTIFY THE LOW WITH CYCLONIC FLOW. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH A PRES GRADIENT THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 210 NM NW AND 270 SE SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT IN 24 HOURS. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 13N110W MOVING W ABOUT 7 KT. THIS LOW IS UNDER NW-N UPPER SHEAR CREATED BY THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N116W SO IT REMAINS A SHEARED LOW WITH LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN ITS VICINITY. ISOLATED WEAKENING CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 111W. THESE TWO LOWS ARE TIED TO AN ELONGATED LOW PRES GYRE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN 87W-100W. GAP WINDS... STRONG HIGH PRES GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT THAT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THE PAST FEW DAYS IS ALLOWING FOR GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF UP TO 35 KT IN 60 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 16N95W TO 13N96W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT IN ABOUT 24-30 HOURS... THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN 48 HOURS. THIS EVENT SHOULD LAST INTO FRI MORNING. $$ AGUIRRE