000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 9N100W 12N110W 9N115W 11N125W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N 
BETWEEN 89W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 95W-100W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO JUST
NW OF THE AREA. A 70-95 KT JET STREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE
TROUGH FROM 28N140W TO 32N135W. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE SEPARATES 
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM
32N125W TO 26N122W. EXCEPT FOR HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR 
NW PORTION OF THE AREA...AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH...STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF A LINE 14N140W TO 28N119W. 

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
IS CENTERED NEAR 13N113W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
BETWEEN 105W AND 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE 
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO 
INTO THE PACIFIC NEAR 12N97W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW E OF 
THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
89W-97W AND OVER EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN GUATEMALA.

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED 26N123W. BROKEN/OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 115W-135W.
SEVERAL LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST A 1010 MB 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N91W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 89W-92W. WINDS TO 20 
KT ARE WITHIN 420 NM S SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. A SECOND LOW...1010 MB IS NEAR 13N109W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
11N128W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW. A 1010 MB LOW N OF THE ITCZ IS CENTERED NEAR 15N115W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE 
QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDS 
FROM 15N132W TO 6N134W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROUGH.

STRONG HIGH PRES ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE GALE FORCE 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

$$
DGS