000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030931
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 03 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 12N90W 11N110W 13N105W 9120W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 93W-95W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS FROM 32N134W TO 26N140W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N132W WITH A 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO 16N140W.
A WEAK 60-75 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 17N133W 
TO 24N122W. THE JET IS ADVECTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE 
ITCZ NEWD. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF THE JET. 

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
IS CENTERED NEAR 15N115W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NWD FROM THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM 
THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS ACROSS MEXICO TO 10N94W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 120W. SEVERAL LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE 
FIRST A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 70 NM OF LOW CENTER. SLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE WITHIN 
240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. A SECOND LOW...1011 MB IS NEAR 
13N107W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ANOTHER 1011 
MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N126W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 
NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ALONG THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 14N131W TO 8N133W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.

STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
INCREASED THE N-NE WINDS TO 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HIGH N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE 
REINFORCED.

$$
DGS