000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N86W TO 10N95W TO 13N102W TO
11N114W TO 12N125W TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 
135W...AND BETWEEN 129W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 80W-85W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING E KT IS LOCATED NEAR 
14N118W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 26N114W. ANOTHER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE ANTICYCLONE ESE TO NEAR 12N103W. BROAD MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COVERS THE AREA 
S OF 27N BETWEEN 130W AND 130W. TO THE NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE 
...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
NEAR 24N134W WITH A TROUGH SSW TO 15N140W. A JET STREAM BRANCH 
ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 11N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 17N130W
AND NE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE ABOVE...THEN DIVES SE TO 18N106W. 
THE JET THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ITS BASE S NEAR 13N102W. MAXIMUM
JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-80 KT NEAR THE JET CORE.  
TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH...MID/UPPER RIDGING HAS PUSHED SE INTO
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA.

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR 
IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE JET STREAM...WITH ONLY NARROW SWATHS 
MOISTURE NOTED N OF 28N. LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED 
PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW OVER THIS AREA. 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS SE INTO THE AREA THROUGH 30N132W
TO 24N123W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A WEAK 
TROUGH ALONG 131W FROM 8N-13N IS ALLOWING FOR AN AREA OF 
NE-E TRADES OF 20 KT FROM 11N-19N W OF 128W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT.
AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THIS AREA DIMINISH. 

UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND 
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT TSTM ACTIVITY S OF THE SE GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO
WHERE CURRENTLY A STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW IS NOTED NEAR 12N93W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N90W. 
VORTICITY INDUCED BY THE STRONG GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NLY FLOW HAS 
FORTIFIED THE LOW WITH ENHANCED CYCLONIC SPIN UP DURING THE 
MORNING HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IMPLY THAT THIS 
LOW WILL ONLY DRIFT WSW AFTER 24 HOURS WITH A PRES GRADIENT THAT 
SHOULD ALLOW FOR 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE 180 NM N AND 240 S 
SEMICIRCLES WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 10 FT. A 1009 MB 
LOW IS FURTHER W NEAR 14N106W MOVING WSW ABOUT 8 KT. THIS LOW IS 
UNDER NW-N UPPER SHEAR CREATED BY THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N118W. 
ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE 
LOW WITH WINDS 20 KT WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE LOW PRIMARILY IN THE 
W QUADRANT. THESE TWO LOWS ARE TIED TO AN ELONGATED LOW PRES 
GYRE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
GENERALLY BETWEEN 88W-107W SEPARATED BY A WEAK ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
12N100W.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
USHERED IN N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE