000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 02 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W N OF 09N MOVING W 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 13N91W THAT 
HAS MOVED OFFSHORE GUATEMALA AND IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE 
CIRCULATION.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N84W TO 
10N100W TO 09N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 10.5N129W AND 
ALSO THE POINT 07N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 20N HAS 
MOVED EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT IS A VERY WEAK 
HEIGHT PATTERN WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
22N135W OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING SOME DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
NORTHWARD WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N115W TO 
NEAR 08N132W. OTHERWISE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS PLUME THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED 
WEST OF 120W NORTH OF 22N. THE HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PART MID WEEK.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF A 
LINE FROM NEAR 22N AT THE MEXICAN GULF OF MEXICO COAST TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 112W. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT IN THIS REGION 
WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 117W. THE SURFACE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND CONTRACT IN SIZE WHILE A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
USHERED IN N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
LL