000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 08N MOVING W 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...09N84W TO 
09N105W TO 09N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 11N95.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 
12N128W TO 06.5N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 07N139W.

CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE POINT 14N106W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 20N HAS 
MOVED EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT IS A VERY WEAK 
HEIGHT PATTERN WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
22N134W OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING SOME DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM ITCZ CONVECTION 
NORTHWARD WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26N115W TO 
NEAR 08N132W. OTHERWISE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS PLUME THE 
ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. 
IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED 
WEST OF 120W NORTH OF 22N. THE HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO 
REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PART MID WEEK.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED NORTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF A 
LINE FROM NEAR 22N AT THE MEXICAN GULF OF MEXICO COAST TO THE 
ITCZ NEAR 112W. THE ATMOSPHERE IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT IN THIS REGION 
WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 117W. THE SURFACE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND CONTRACT IN SIZE WHILE A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
USHERED IN N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS.

$$
LL