000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 8N IS MOVING W 10 KT. ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WTIHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W TO 11N94W TO 9N106W TO 
10N118W 
TO 10N125W TO 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 126W-132W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
93W-97W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA 
E OF 130W WITH THE ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
13N120W. A JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH 
11N140W...AND EXTENDS NE TO 17N129W AND E TO UP AND OVER 
THE RIDGE CREST NEAR 23N120W...THEN DIVES SE TO 21N110W
AND ROUNDS THE BASE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NE
AND CENTRAL MEXICO WITH BASE NEAR 10N103W.  MAXIMUM JET CORE 
WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 60-80 KT NEAR THE JET CORE. TO THE 
W OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 24N134W WITH A TROUGH SW TO
13N140W. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH...A VERY SHARP AND LARGE UPPER 
RIDGE WITH ITS CREST SPILLING SE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION OF
THE AREA.

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND 
STABLE AIR IS EVIDENT TO THE NW OF THE JET STREAM...EXCEPT
FOR A NARROW SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEPING SSW BETWEEN
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE RIDGE SPILLING
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED PATCHES OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SW OVER 
THIS AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1027 MB HIGH 
CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N137W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 
23N121W. A SLIGHTLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS INDUCING AN AREA OF NE-E TRADES
OF 20 KT FROM 15N-21N W OF 128W. THIS AREA WILL SHIFT
FROM 15N-22N W OF 134W IN 24 HOURS AND CHANGE LITTLE IN 48 
HOURS.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N120W COVERS THE AREA S OF 24N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS AREA OF 
ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW AND BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC COAST IS MAINTAINING ACTIVE CONVECTION
N OF HE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W-97W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST 
THAT SURFACE LOW PRES OF 1008 MB NEAR 12N93W AND OF 1009 MB NEAR
15N105W WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THESE LOW PRES
FEATURES ARE TIED IN A LARGE LOW PRES GYRE THAT HAS PERSISTED 
OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS 
USHERED IN N-NE WINDS OF 25-35 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.


$$
AGUIRRE