000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 8N ALONG 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR THE COAST AND INLAND
OVER NW NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W 11N100W 9N120W 8N130W 6N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N AND 30 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 126W-130W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS FROM 137W-139W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N135W 
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO 
16N140W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NW OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WEAK 55-65 KT JETSTREAM 
IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 12N135W 16N130W TO 22N122W. BROKEN 
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF THE JET.

AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO NEAR 
27N107W. WEAKENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO 
EXTENDING FROM 27N107W TO THE W COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N103W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXTENDS FROM THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE SW TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N98W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE DEEP TROPICS 
IS CENTERED NEAR 12N118W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA S OF 
20N BETWEEN 105W AND 130W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 122W-127W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT ELY WINDS W OF AROUND 130W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. 
SEVERAL TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST EXTENDS 
FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 16N115WW TO 10N101W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITH 140 NM OVER W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW. 
ANOTHER TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 13N112W TO 8N115W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH. YET ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 13N124W TO 7N126W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE WAVE N OF 
9N. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N131W TO 6N133W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE WAVE. AND FINALLY A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
10N138N TO 4N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
6N-7N BETWEEN 137W-139W.

HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH N-NE WINDS TO GALE FORCE OF 25-35 
KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH IS REINFORCED. 

$$
DGS