000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 01 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE 
...05N77W TO 08N100W TO 09N125W TO 06N135W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 05.5N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINT 10.5N125W.

OTHER CONVECTION NORTH OF THE ITCZ...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
COAST OF MEXICO FROM 97W TO 100W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 20N IS 
MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULT IS A 
VERY WEAK HEIGHT PATTERN WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 21N133W. THIS CIRCULATION IS BRINGING SOME DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE WITH BROKEN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION NORTHWARD WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
25N115W TO NEAR 08N132W. OTHERWISE N OF 17N AND WEST OF 107W S 
OF 17N THE AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS IS NOTED WEST 
OF 125W NORTH OF 25N AND BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ELSEWHERE WEST OF 
120W. THE HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

EAST OF 107W SOUTH OF 17N AND NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE ATMOSPHERE 
IS DIFFLUENT ALOFT WITH MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF 
CONVECTION.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 110W. THE SURFACE 
HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND CONTRACT IN SIZE WHILE A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS...
HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD 
FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PUSHING NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT TONIGHT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH IS REINFORCED. 

$$
LL