000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 9N84W 11N100W 10N115W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 89W-98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N129W
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW TO
15N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE TROUGH OVER 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A WEAK JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 14N134W TO 22N120W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NW OF THE JET.

A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE NEW
MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N122W. 
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY THEN WEAKEN SOME 
AND MOVE E SAT. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FROM 
25N108W TO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE SW TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 8N108W. TO THE E OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATION IS
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN
90W-97W.

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE IS 
SUPPORTING 20 KT ELY WINDS W OF AROUND 125W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. 
SEVERAL TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST '
EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 18N-11N ALONG
102W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH WITH 
AXIS FROM 12N127W TO 7N131W. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH. YET ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1011 MB LOW
NEAR 7N137W N TO 12N137W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW.

$$
DGS