000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON OCT 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 8N79W TO 10N90W TO 12N103W TO 12N117W TO 7N130W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 123W-127W...W OF 135W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-122W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W-105W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 95W-98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 99W-101W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM SW TEXAS SW TO ACROSS N CENTRAL MEXICO TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 19N117W ...AND TO NEAR 19N126W WILL BE ENERGIZED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL DIVE SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SECONDARY SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS N OF THE AREA...BUT WILL PUSH SWD AS A RESULT OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY REACHING THE WATERS JUST N OF 30N INCLUDING NORTHERN BAJA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE BROAD LOW PRES DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND HIGH PRES BUILDING SE OVER THE WATERS ALONG THE U.S. W COAST HAS BROUGHT AND INCREASE OF NW WINDS TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. NW WINDS TO 20 KT WERE NOTED IN A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS ACROSS THE GULF N OF ABOUT 27N. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRES BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE NE AND HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA INSTENSIFIES AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE S...EXPECT THE 20 KT WINDS TO BECOMING S TO SW IN DIRECTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THEN W TO NW IN 48 HOURS. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFY REACH UP TO 25 KT. TO THE SE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A JET STREAM BRANCH EXTENDED FROM 12N126W TO 16N115W TO ACROSS MEXICO AT 21N105W...AND CONTINUED NE TO THE FAR NW GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 60-90 KT AS NOTED IN SATELLTIE DERIVED WINDS WERE NEAR THE JET CORE. THE JET WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM TO ITS S. DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE SE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ WAS ALLOW FOR CLUSTERS OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE TO FLARE UP ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 110W THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEN MEAN ENSEMBLES AGAIN SUGGESTED THAT A GYRE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTCICTY IN THE AREA BETWEEN 95W AND 105W MAY COMBINE TO FORM A MORE DEFINITIBE LOW THAT TRACKS IN A NE FASHION LATER ON THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO LOOK OVER A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS TO OBTAIN A BETTER DETERMINATION OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS PROBALE LOW PRES SYSTEM. TO THE W OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...HIGH PRES REMAINS WAS IN CONTROL THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMAOSPHERE WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 138W EXTENDING TO AN ANTICLONE NEAR 12N138W. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1029 MB HIGH CENTER WAS NALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N126W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 24N AND W OF 122 WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS FRM 10N-24N W OF 130W...AND FROM 9N-18N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PARENT HIGH TO THE N INTENSIFIES. LONG PERIOD NW-N SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF UP TO 16 FT AS PER LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT WITH NW-N WINDS THERE INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING IN GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION WERE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 130W INDICATIVE OF A VERY STABLE BROAD SCALE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AS NOTED IN SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. OVER THE EASTERN SECTION...A BATCH OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DROPPING S BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WAS NOTED AS A BLANKET OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 24N BETWEEN 115W-120W. HOWEVER ...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS SURROUNDING SUBSIDENT AIR IS ENTRAINED INTO THEM. A MID/UPPER LEVEL NEARLY STATIONARY ANTICYCLONE NEAR 4N112W EXTENDS A RIDGE NEWD TO 10N101W AND FURTHER NE TO ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WAS NOTED NE OF THE ANTICYCLONE WAS AIDING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 103W AND 114W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS STRANDS WERE SPREADING NE AND MERGING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM DESCRIBED EARLIER. $$ AGUIRRE