000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDED ALONG 07N78W TO 
13N105W TO 07N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W 
AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO 20N120W TO 22N128W...AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING 
FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TO 30N135W THEN SOUTH TO 13N135W. AN 
ASSOCIATED 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
35N137W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND QUIKSCAT DATA 
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRES AND THE BAJA COAST. SHIP DATA INDICATE SEAS AS 
HIGH AS 10 FT WITH NORTHERLY SWELL. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TRADE 
WIND FLOW IS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA SOUTH OF THE RIDGE TO 
10N W OF 130W. THIS TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 130W. FOR 
TOMORROW...JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
DIGGING EASTWARD TO THE OREGON COAST...WILL PUSH SE AND 
REINFORCE THE MID TO UPPER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SW UNITED 
STATES THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN 
BAJA AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH TUE...WITH N TO NE WINDS 
INCREASING TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FT IN N SWELL 
MAINLY N OF 20N E OF 130W AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE 
WEST. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE AND WED. THE  
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS OUT AHEAD OF THE 
WEAKENING HIGH PRES MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. 

E OF 110W...SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS 
INDICATED A BAND OF 20 KT SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 90W AND 110W...ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA WITH 
THE AID OF DIVERGENT SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA. SUBSIDENT NE FLOW RELATED TO THIS RIDGE IS 
SUPPRESSING ANY MAJOR CONVECTION E OF 90W...EXCEPT FOR MODEST 
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. LOOKING 
AHEAD...THE FRESH SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK AND 
EXPAND IN COVERAGE EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIAN COAST...MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. SEAS WILL REACH AS HIGH AS 8 FT 
ALONG THE ITCZ WITH THE PERSISTENT FRESH FLOW.

$$
CHRISTENSEN