000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261006 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON OCT 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDED ALONG 08N76W TO 09N88W TO 11N96W TO 14N108W TO 09N123W TO 07N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW NEAR 09N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 92W TO 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. EXTENDING SW THROUGH NW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 21N120W THEN NW TO 27N127W IS PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 10N125W NW TO 20N135W AND THEN NWD TO 30N. THE L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACING EWD OVER THIS RIDGE INTO THE NE PACIFIC THIS MORNING...THAT WILL DIVE S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE AND DIVES S ALONG THE W COAST OF THE U.S. MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SINK S ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUE...AND REACH THE N BORDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS E OF 127W LATE TUE. SEAS ACROSS THE FAR NE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AREA FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE 12 FT IN BUILDING N TO NW WIND SWELL TUE NIGHT...REACHING 20 FT ALONG 30N BY WED MORNING. PRESENTLY ALL MODELS KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N...AND AT THIS TIME HAVE ONLY INCLUDED GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BY 48 HOURS. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REORGANIZED L/W TROUGH WILL ALSO INDUCE FRESH NWLY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO 30 KT...ACROSS THE FAR N GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE TUE NIGHT. TO THE S OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS OF 60-85 KT WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENE TOWARDS MEXICO FROM 16N TO 19N. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SPEED DIVERGENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ITCZ S OF THIS JET BETWEEN 95W AND 125W...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RATHER ENHANCED HERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N137W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 19N108W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 25N AND W OF 120W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. NE TRADE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS W OF 125W ALL THE WAY TO THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PARENT HIGH TO THE N INTENSIFIES. OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...AN OVERNIGHT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT A WEAK LOW WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING PERSISTS NEAR 09N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE NEAR THIS LOW AS IT DRIFTS W TO NW. UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN THE PAST FEW DAYS ACTING TO AID IN CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOONAL FLOW E OF 100W...AND AIDED BY THE UPPER RIDGE...CONVECTION HERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE WITHIN THE ITCZ FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY SHIFT THE LOW ABOVE NW AND MERGE IT WITH OTHER CYCLONIC TURNING SHIFTING ABOUT WITHIN A BROAD GYRE...AND DEVELOP SOME MODEST LOW PRESSURE ALONG ABOUT 105W IN A FEW DAYS. THIS HAS BEEN A PREFERRED REGION FOR CYCLOGENESIS THIS SEASON. $$ STRIPLING