000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 9N95W TO 12N110W TO 8N124W TO 7N133W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-122W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W AND 128W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN TEXAS SW TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 20N124W WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL DIVE S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATED OVER SE MEXICO AND FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY PASSING S THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN IN INCREASING NW WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING EARLY MON...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS RUN INDICATING 20 NW WINDS N OF 30N. IN ANY EVENT...IF THESE WINDS DO KICK UP THEY SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY MOVES SHIFTS SEWD AND WEAKENS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENE. TO THE S OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS OF 60-90 KT WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENE TOWARDS MEXICO FROM 16N TO 19N. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS ALONG 112W FROM 10N-15N. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THIS AREA...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RATHER ENHANCED HERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTED THAT BROAD LOW PRES IN THE FORM OF A GYRE WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS WELL WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLES OF BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HINTING AT A LOW EMERGING FROM THE GYRE AND TRACKING NE. WILL ANALYZE FUTURE MODELS TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES TO SEE WHAT DEFINITIVE LOW PRES WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP. AS FOR STRENGTH OF THE POSSIBLE LOW...PRESENTLY IT TOO EARLY TO GRASP BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL DATA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HIGH PRES REMAINS ENTRANCED THROUGHOUT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST SPILLING SE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W WELL NE TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N136W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N123W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 120W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. NE-E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PARENT HIGH TO THE N INTENSIFIES. LONG PERIODS NW-N SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF UP 13 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS N OF 18N AND NW OF LINE FROM 18N125W TO THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N113W WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N97W TO 04N82W AND A CARIBBEAN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N79W. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN OCT 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W TO 9N95W TO 12N110W TO 8N124W TO 7N133W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W-108W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W-115W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 115W-122W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W AND 128W-132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN TEXAS SW TO ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO NEAR 20N124W WILL BE RE-ENFORCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC NW THAT WILL DIVE S INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND AMPLIFY THE TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL U.S. WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT DISSIPATED OVER SE MEXICO AND FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY PASSING S THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED DOWN IN INCREASING NW WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING EARLY MON...WITH THE 12 UTC GFS RUN INDICATING 20 NW WINDS N OF 30N. IN ANY EVENT...IF THESE WINDS DO KICK UP THEY SHOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AS STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. QUICKLY MOVES SHIFTS SEWD AND WEAKENS AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ENE. TO THE S OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS OF 60-90 KT WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENE TOWARDS MEXICO FROM 16N TO 19N. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE JET IS ALONG 112W FROM 10N-15N. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE THROUGH IN ADDITION TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WITHIN THIS AREA...ITCZ CONVECTION WILL REMAIN RATHER ENHANCED HERE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTED THAT BROAD LOW PRES IN THE FORM OF A GYRE WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT THIS AREA AS WELL WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLES OF BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN HINTING AT A LOW EMERGING FROM THE GYRE AND TRACKING NE. WILL ANALYZE FUTURE MODELS TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES TO SEE WHAT DEFINITIVE LOW PRES WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP. AS FOR STRENGTH OF THE POSSIBLE LOW...PRESENTLY IT TOO EARLY TO GRASP BASED ON AVAILABLE MODEL DATA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...HIGH PRES REMAINS ENTRANCED THROUGHOUT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST SPILLING SE EXTENDS FROM 32N133W WELL NE TO THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N136W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 24N123W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N AND W OF 120W. THE PRES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N AND W OF 120W WITH SEAS 8-10 FT. NE-E TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED ON THE S SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE PARENT HIGH TO THE N INTENSIFIES. LONG PERIODS NW-N SWELLS PRODUCING SEAS OF UP 13 FT ARE EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS N OF 18N AND NW OF LINE FROM 18N125W TO THE WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEAR 27N113W WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CLOSER TO THE COAST...LIES IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 06N97W TO 04N82W AND A CARIBBEAN UPPER LOW NEAR 19N79W. $$ AGUIRRE