000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231623
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W FROM 08N-15N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT SPLIT WITH ADVERSE CONDITIONS N OF 12N AND LESS 
HOSTILE S OF 12N.  WITHIN NEXT 24 HRS MORE CONVECTION LIKELY TO 
DEVELOP IN BOTTOM HALF BUT NO CYCLONIC ORGANIZATION EXPECTED.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N85W TO 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS W OF 127W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO 15N120W 
INCREASING SW SHEAR OVER N PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 108W 
AND CURTAILING ITS DEVELOPMENT.  SMALL AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ON S 
PART OF TROPICAL WAVE HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION.   

HIGH PRES CENTER 1027 MB NW OF AREA EXTENDING RIDGE TO 15N115W 
SQUEEZING GRADIENT AGAINST COASTAL MOUNTAINS IN CALIFORNIA WITH 
FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE INTRUDING INTO N PARTS OF BASIN.  
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE N OF 10N 
W OF 126W.

STATIONARY FRONT N OF AREA WITH SUBSIDING NW SWELLS INTRUDE INTO 
BASIN EXPECTED N OF 10N W OF 117W.  

$$
WALLY BARNES