000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS 8N78W TO 10N100W 
TO 12N109W TO 12N120W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 82W TO 93W AND 117W TO 123W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS FROM 105W TO 115W AND 127W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL TODAY.  NO GALE FORCE 
WIND EVENTS OR TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OCCURRING IN OUR AREA OF 
RESPONSIBILITY.  

THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING THE SURFACE CONDITIONS IS A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF 30N.  THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE 20 
KT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS 
THE 20 KT TRADEWIND NORTHEASTERLIES IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF 
OUR AREA.  IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES... 
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL IS ALSO AFFECTING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION 
OF OUR AREA.  THESE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
GENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE RIDGING 
ALONG WITH A DISSIPATING LOW NEAR 22N106W HAS CAUSED SOME 20 TO 
30 KT NW WINDS WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AS OBSERVED BY 
BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.  AS 
THIS LOW DISSIPATES TODAY...THE WINDS IN THE GULF SHOULD RELAX 
LATER TODAY.

A WEAK LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 10N87W.  IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF ITS CENTER...BUT 
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A WELL DEFINED SURFACE CENTER EXISTS OR 
WHETHER IT IS PRIMARILY A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.  IF IT 
PERSISTS...IT MAY BE ADDED TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK LATER 
TODAY.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANY 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE 
NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN.

NO GAP WINDS EVENTS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.  A WEAK GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT 
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH GALE CONDITIONS.

$$
LANDSEA