000 AXPZ20 KNHC 181530 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE RICK CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 108.3W AT 18/1500 UTC...OR ABOUT 440 NM SSE OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 150 KT WITH GUSTS TO 185 KT. THE EYE DIAMETER IS ABOUT 15 NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT RICK PROBABLY PEAKED EARLIER TODAY AND THIS IS MOST NOTABLE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS BUT RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS A HURRICANE. RICK IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 79W N OF 04N ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN ONE TO TWO DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 121W FROM 06N TO 17N AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WEAK AND MINIMAL CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...ITCZ... THE AXIS OF THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 13N110W TO 12N115W TO 14N130W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 128W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 115W... A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY N OF 23N W OF 125W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 130W. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATING SPEEDS OF 50 TO 60 KT. FLOW IS EVEN STRONGER N OF 29N W OF 132W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 118W N OF 18N AND WILL ACT TO TURN RICK IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND THEN TO THE NE INTO MEXICO. GENERALLY MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICS S OF ABOUT 15N. AT THE SURFACE A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 32N138W. IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO 24N W OF 135W NE TO E WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. E OF 115W... WINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 90W AND 100W AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY E OF 90W INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA. AT THE SURFACE A STORM WARNING IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 14 FT. $$ CAB