000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU OCT 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 97.0W AT 
2100 UTC OR ABOUT 385 MILES...620 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO MOVING NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR... ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM IN 
12 HOURS AND A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. PRESENTLY SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 
99W.       

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 5N-15N...MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 
105W-113W. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
A SLIGHT MAXIMUM OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 
105W-111W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 10N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 110W.  

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS OF THE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED 
FROM 08N76W TO 12N90W TO 09N100W TO 12N115W TO 08N130W TO 
11N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE 
AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W...FROM 07N TO 
09N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 114W AND 
125W. 

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AND LOW INTERSECTS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 
133W. THE 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 13N132W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER 
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 133W AND 135W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 134W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 126W AND 129W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AT 1800 UTC THE 1011 MB REMNANT LOW OF PATRICIA IS LOCATED NEAR 
22N114W...DRIFTING W AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. NO CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW 
CLOUD SWIRL...AND STRONG UPPER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS LOW IS 
PRODUCING A VERY STABLE MID TO UPPER ENVIRONMENT. THE REMNANTS 
OF PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

THE ONLY SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS IS A 
1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N127W MOVING SLOWLY NW. A 998 MB 
LOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA HOWEVER NEAR 43N136W MOVING NE. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N143W 25N160W. THE FRONT IS 
THUS WELL W OF THE AREA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$
FORMOSA