000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

AT 1200 UTC A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N95W SOUTH OF THE 
BAY OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING NW. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE ITCZ TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 
10N-16N BETWEEN 93W-99W. THIS CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE A HIGHER DVORAK 
RATING ON THE NEXT CLASSIFICATION. THE LOW IS IN AN AREA OF LOW 
SHEAR... ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS. 
THUS...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THIS LOW TO DEVELOP TO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 107W/108W FROM 5N-15N...MOVING W AT 10 
KT. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING BETWEEN 
100W-110W. THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS 
A SLIGHT MAXIMUM OVER THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 12N-15N 
BETWEEN 104W-111W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
105W-108W.  

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS OF THE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED 
FROM 08N76W TO 10N85W TO 12N92W TO 08N105W TO 10N120W TO 12N130W 
TO 11N140W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL 
FEATURE AND TROPICAL WAVE SECTIONS...ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W AND 
89W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 111W AND 120W...AND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 124W AND 
130W.

AN ELONGATED TROUGH AND LOW INTERSECTS THE ITCZ BETWEEN 128W AND 
132W. THE 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N130W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE LOW CENTER 
FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AT 1200 UTC THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF PATRICIA IS LOCATED NEAR 
22N113W...MOVING WSW AND GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. NO CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS 
LOW CLOUD SWIRL...AND STRONG UPPER CONVERGENCE ACROSS THIS LOW 
IS PRODUCING A VERY STABLE MID TO UPPER ENVIRONMENT. THE 
REMNANTS OF PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FOLLOW 
A WSW TO W TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISSIPATING TO AN OPEN 
TROUGH WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

THE ONLY SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURE OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS IS A 
1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N128W MOVING SLOWLY NW. A 994 MB 
LOW IS OUTSIDE THE AREA HOWEVER NEAR 41N139W MOVING NE. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 32N145W 26N160W. THE FRONT IS 
THUS WELL W OF THE AREA AND WILL ENTER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. 

$$
FORMOSA