000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141537 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE OCT 13 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AT 1200 UTC THE 1008 MB REMNANT LOW OF PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 223N110W OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LOW IS MOVING W-NW AT 5 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WERE FOUND WITHIN 45 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PATRICIA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FOUND WITHIN 90 NM NW AND 120 NM SW QUADRANTS. THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND FOLLOW A W TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DISSIPATING FRI MORNING AFTER IT CROSSES 115W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG 95W WAS REPOSITIONED TO 102W FROM 06N TO 13N BASED ON THE 1236 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD FROM THIS WAVE TO THE 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N93W. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS SW FLOW OF 20-25 KT S OF THE ITCZ FEEDING INTO THIS CYCLONIC GYRE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITHIN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS GYRE IN 24 TO 48 HOURS THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A LINE OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS MORNING FROM 13N103W TO 09N105W...BUT THERE IS NO NOTABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE WAS ALONG 08N78W TO 09N88W TO 07N95W TO 06N110W TO 10N120W TO 13N125W TO 13N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN E OF 81W...BETWEEN 120W AND 125W...WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 120W AND 125W AND 136W AND 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. TWO TROUGHS INTERSECT THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FROM 20N136W TO 13N138W. ANOTHER TROUGH...FROM 18N126W TO 10N128W HAS A 1009 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES SYSTEM WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE ITCZ AT 14N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF THE LOW TO 10N. ...DISCUSSION... 1018 MB HIGH PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 26N121W WILL MIGRATE NW OVER THE PERIOD AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC N OF FORECAST WATERS PASSES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL MAKE WAY FOR DEEP LAYER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS N WATERS. STEERING FLOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE TO ITS NW THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND PATRICIA IS GENERATING 20 KT N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN BAJA COAST N OF PATRICIA THAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WESTWARD BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALLOWED EASTERLY FLOW TO INCREASE W OF 125W BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ENHANCED TROUGHING OVER W WATERS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RIDGE WILL PREVENT THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THU FROM MOVING INTO NW WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA IS BRINGING NW SWELL INTO THE AREA...WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 15-16 FT OVER N WATERS LATER TODAY. SHIP A8RH6 REPORTED 11 FT SEAS NEAR 30N138W AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION LIES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE HENRI AND LIES IN A REGION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF A 35 KT EASTERLY UPPER JET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 93W AND 105W. MANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS WRAP THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GYRE TO THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...POTENTIALLY ASSISTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. $$ SCHAUER